Does the January return really show us the direction of the market for the rest of the year? The plot above shows the return for January and the return for February-December for each of the last 20 years for SPY. January and February-December only went in the same direction 15 out of 20 years. Three of the misses occurred recently. See 2001, 2003, and 2005. Note that 2001 and 2003 were big misses.
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