Saturday, January 3, 2009

Crystal Ball



What do we actually know about the market in the coming year?

We do know expert predictions are never of much value. From CXO Advisory (Jan 2): "In summary, investors should not expect the typical "expert" to outperform a simple extrapolation of the long-term trend in forecasting the level of a broad stock market index one year ahead."

Another thing we know is that earnings estimates continue to go lower. The forward and trailing market P/E ratios are not as low as you might hope after a crash.

No comments: