Saturday, November 1, 2008

Short Term Correlations


The short term correlation between the SP-500 (SPY) and long term treasuries (TLT) has moved back up toward the top of its recent range. We may be near an inflection point. Will money move back into treasuries or continue to move into stocks? (The plots show the 20 day rolling correlation of the two indicated assets.)


The correlation between the SP-500 (SPY) and treasury inflation protected bonds (TIP) has continued to increase toward zero as the TIP price has plunged. Is this a TIP buying opportunity? The correlation has not been this close to zero since October 2007 where TIP rallied.


The correlation between the SP-500 (SPY) and commodities (DBC) has gone unusually positive from an unusually negative level back in July. Is this a big picture buy signal for DBC as it is usually not so highly correlated to the stock market? If the stock market continues to rally can commodities stabilize?


The correlation between the SP-500 (SPY) and gold (GLD) has recently spiked toward zero. Can gold move to back to a significant negative correlation if the stock market pulls back from here?

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