Monday, July 27, 2009
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Trendiness Extreme
The 15 day trendiness has reached an extreme level. (See the plot above.) It is now over 0.9 (horizontal gray line). There will likely be some interruption of the straight line move up in the near future. In late February/early March 2009, the trendiness stayed elevated as the market collapsed. Are we in an equivalent panic period or will we quickly see a counter trend move?
I remember reading something that made a reference to the three week time period as being significant in terms of the human mind accepting a change. I believe that it was related to plastic surgery. Anyone know of the paper referenced, or the three week period as being significant in human psychology?
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
QQQQs Up 9 Days in a Row
The QQQQs have been up nine days in a row. What happens after the QQQQs have been up eight or more days in a row? The chart above summarizes the results for purchasing at the close and holding for one, two, five, and ten days after purchase. The results are good for a two, five, and ten day holding period. The results for a single day hold are not good. We may be looking at short term weakness followed by a further continuation of the rally.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Indecision
After the big move up from the Mach 2009 lows, should we begin to exit long term passive positions and move to a more active trading approach?
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Update: 3x2 System / Crash System
The '3x2 System' is still holding near its high water mark of the last two years.
The 'Crash System' equity curve has also moved up nicely and is closing in on its highs.
A diversified portfolio of active trading methods certainly looks to be the way to go. However, the massive drawdown of these two methods during the crash of late 2008 suggests that some sort of disaster filter is needed.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Fear
Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.
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